The separatist Parti Québécois (PQ) won Quebec's provincial election on October 5, 2026, returning to power for the first time in more than a decade. Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon will become the province's next premier — but with a minority mandate.
The PQ was projected to win 59 seats, with votes still being counted. That fell short of the 64 seats required for a majority in the 127-seat National Assembly, meaning the party will need support from opposition lawmakers to pass legislation and survive confidence votes.
St-Pierre Plamondon acknowledged that voters had denied him a majority. "Quebecers elected the Parti Québécois asking it to work with the other parties, and I heard that message," he said, pledging to be "the premier for all Quebecers, without exception."
A referendum — but not yet
The PQ's central promise is a third referendum on Quebec independence during its first term. St-Pierre Plamondon has said he will not call one while U.S. President Donald Trump remains in office — ruling a vote out until at least January 20, 2029, the day Trump's term ends.
He has argued that a decision of that magnitude "requires conditions that allow for an informed and calm debate" and should not be "hijacked by the theatrics of an unpredictable president." Trump's tariffs and talk of making Canada the 51st U.S. state have complicated the separatist case, fueling Canadian nationalism and leading some French-speaking Quebecers to see greater security in remaining part of Canada.
The timing is uncertain for another reason: minority governments in Quebec typically last less than two years, and the PQ would need backing from Québec solidaire — the only other pro-independence party in the legislature — to advance a referendum. Both the Liberals and the Conservatives have said they would never support one.
A legislature redrawn
The Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ), led by Charles Milliard, will form the official Opposition with a projected 40 seats. "Preparing your referendum will find you facing a clear opponent in the Liberal Party," Milliard said, while adding that his party would collaborate on other issues.
Éric Duhaime's Conservative Party of Quebec won 19 seats — enough for official party status — after entering the election with none. Québec solidaire dropped to nine seats.
The governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), which held 79 seats and had governed since 2018, was wiped off the map entirely, failing to win a single seat. Leader Christine Fréchette lost her own riding of Trois-Rivières and took full responsibility for what she called a "difficult result."
A new national-unity test for Carney
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney congratulated St-Pierre Plamondon and signaled that Ottawa would work with the incoming separatist government. "Building a stronger Québec is core to our mission of building a stronger Canada," Carney wrote on X, citing support for businesses and workers affected by U.S. tariffs, job creation, homelessness and housing.
The result nonetheless adds to national-unity pressures on Carney, who has stressed a united front against Trump's tariffs. Quebec's vote comes two weeks before Albertans decide on October 19, 2026 whether to hold a referendum on separation from Canada.
Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University, said the election was not a mandate for independence. "This was not an election about independence... but about getting rid of the CAQ," he said. Support for independence remains around 30%, near historical lows.
Béland said the minority result was likely welcome news for Carney's government because it makes it harder for the PQ to prepare for and call a referendum. Quebecers have twice rejected sovereignty, most recently by a razor-thin margin in 1995.
What is confirmed and what is not
Confirmed: the PQ won the election and will form a minority government; the PLQ will be the official Opposition; the PCQ earned official party status; Québec solidaire won nine seats; and the CAQ lost every seat.
Unknown: the final seat count, pending judicial recounts and remaining ballots; how long the minority government will survive; and whether St-Pierre Plamondon can secure the legislative support needed to hold a referendum.
Awaited: the opening of the 44th legislature on November 17, when the new premier delivers his inaugural speech; the PQ's promised autumn economic update; and Alberta's October 19 vote on whether to proceed toward a separation referendum.
Sources: CityNews Halifax, The Guardian, CBC, AP, Radio-Canada, Le Devoir.